Lab reports

We test the obvious trade, then publish what happened.

A news event becomes a plan, the plan runs against years of real prices, and the result gets written up whether it worked or not. Several of these conclude that the trade everyone expected was the worst one.

9 min · tested over January 2020 – December 2024

50,000 People Evacuated Over a Chemical Tank. The Safety Stock Trade Was the Worst Performer.

A chemical tank nearly exploded in suburban Orange County. The intuitive response, buying companies built to survive exactly this kind of disaster, lost money in every test we ran. The companies that made money had nothing to do with safety. That gap is the whole story.

8 min · tested over June 2021 to May 2026

AI Hyperscalers Face $725 Billion in Capex Scrutiny. We Tested Whether Quality Beats Momentum.

The biggest cloud companies are projected to spend $725 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, and the market has started asking for proof it pays off. We tested whether screening for cash flow coverage protects a technology portfolio, or whether simply buying whatever is rising still wins.

9 min · tested over June 2021 to May 2026

Uber Bid $11 Billion for Delivery Hero. We Tested Whether to Buy the Acquirer or the Target.

Uber offered roughly $11 billion for Delivery Hero and was turned down. DoorDash is circling the same assets. When an industry starts consolidating, do you want to own the companies writing the cheques or the ones being bought? We tested both.

9 min · tested over June 2021 to May 2026

A $6.1M Insider Transaction Looks Bullish Until You Read the Filing.

Stax Labs flagged a $6.1 million insider transaction in Roivant Sciences. On the surface it reads as a vote of confidence. The filing says something different, and the difference is worth understanding before you ever act on an insider headline.

9 min · tested over January 2022 to May 2026

A Congressman Bought AT&T. The Thesis Behind It Beat Momentum by 9 Points.

Rep. Tim Moore disclosed an AT&T purchase of between $15,000 and $50,000. We reverse-engineered the financial profile behind it, built it into a testable plan, and ran it against a strategy that simply buys whatever is rising. The boring plan won.

9 min · tested over June 2021 to May 2026

A Congressman Bought Defense, Banks, REITs and Tech in the Same Week. The Real Signal Was Simpler.

Rep. William Keating bought JPMorgan Chase, Northrop Grumman, Simon Property Group and VMware in a single week. The headline writes itself. The more interesting pattern is what all four share underneath: strong returns on equity, durable margins, moderate debt and consistent cash generation.

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