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Backtesting vs Paper Trading

Backtesting asks how a plan handled the past. Paper trading asks how it handles right now, on simulated cash.

6 min

Two different questions

Backtesting asks a question about history: given these rules, what would have happened between then and now? The answer arrives in seconds because every price it needs already exists.

Paper trading asks a question about the present: given these rules, what is happening this week? The answer arrives at the speed of the market, because the days have not happened yet. Your plan buys and sells on today's real prices using cash that is not real.

Neither replaces the other. A plan that survived five years of history but falls apart in its first live month has told you something important, and so has a plan that does well in a calm month after failing the history test.

What history is good at showing

History contains the events nobody wants to live through: sharp falls, long flat stretches, sudden reversals. A five year replay puts your plan through all of them in a few seconds.

It is also repeatable. You can run the same test twice and get the same answer, which means you can change one rule, run it again, and see exactly what that change did. Comparing two versions of a plan on identical history is the cleanest way to learn what a rule is worth.

That is the strength: breadth and repeatability. In minutes you can see a plan meet more difficult markets than most people experience in a decade.

What live practice is good at showing

A practice run catches the things history smooths over. Prices move while orders sit. Companies report earnings on a Tuesday and drop 8% by Wednesday. News arrives that no rule anticipated.

It also catches you. Watching a plan sell something you liked, in real time, on a red day, tells you whether you can genuinely leave it alone. A great many people discover during practice that they cannot, which is far cheaper to learn on simulated cash than on savings.

Stax gives six practice slots on the free tier, each trading simulated cash on real market prices, so several versions of a plan can run at once and the market itself can settle which one you were right about.

A worked comparison

Take one plan and run it both ways. The history test reports that it grew $10,000 to $13,850 over five years, fell $2,100 at its worst point, and traded 214 times.

Then it goes into a practice slot on the first of the month. Six weeks later that slot shows $10,190 on a starting $10,000, with nine trades and one holding sold because it fell past the line you set. That is a much smaller sample and it proves far less.

Here is the trap worth naming: those six weeks feel more convincing because you watched them happen. They are not. Nine trades tell you almost nothing about a rule, and one calm month is not evidence. The history test is the stronger information; the practice run is the honesty check on top of it.

The order that works

Test on history first, because it is fast and it kills weak ideas cheaply. If a plan cannot survive five years of real prices, no amount of live practice will rescue it and you have saved yourself weeks.

Then practice the survivors. A plan that passed the history test earns the right to run on simulated cash, where you find out how it behaves in the present and whether you can watch it work without interfering.

Only after both would anyone sensible think about real cash, and in Stax that is a separate deliberate step rather than something that happens by drift.

Doing both in Stax

The same plan runs through the same engine in both directions, so the rules that were tested are the rules that get practised. There is no translation step where something quietly changes.

A sensible first week: describe a plan, run the history test, read the trades, then put it in a practice slot and leave it alone for a month. Checking it daily is the impulse to resist, and noticing that impulse is part of what the exercise is for.

What to remember

  • A history test replays your plan across five or more years in seconds and can be repeated exactly.
  • A practice slot runs your plan on this week's real prices using simulated cash, at the speed of the market.
  • Test on history first because it kills weak plans cheaply, then practise the ones that survive.
  • A few good weeks of practice is a small sample and proves much less than it feels like it proves.

Common questions

How long should I practise before trusting a plan?

Long enough to include a stretch you did not enjoy. A month of rising prices teaches you nothing about whether you can leave the plan alone. What you are testing during practice is partly the plan and partly yourself.

Can I run more than one version at the same time?

Yes, and it is the most useful thing you can do with practice slots. Run two versions of the same plan side by side, differing in one rule, and let real prices settle which rule was better rather than arguing with yourself about it.

Does practice use real market prices?

Yes. The cash is simulated, the prices are not. Your plan buys and sells at what the market is genuinely doing, which is what makes the exercise worth anything.

Why did my practice results differ from the history test?

Because they are different periods. A five year test averages across many market moods; six weeks is one mood. Differences of this kind are normal and are not a sign that either result is broken.

Reading is the easy half. Try it on a real plan.

Name a few companies you know and watch Stax build a plan, prove it on real history, and practice it with simulated cash. Free, and no card.

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